How to deal with the automation of the job?
Robots serve dishes for restaurant customers Harbin, Theologian Province, China.
In Humanity Sunday. The development of automation will lead to the slaughter of jobs. Even the most skilled will not be spared. The major risk? Increased inequality and rolling a large part of the "middle class". Even the capitalists are wondering: What revenues with these employees expropriated of their work will they live? How will it run the economy, if consumption is hidden? The conflict for the sharing of productivity gains will only become more fierce.
The job is no longer the rendezvous and the median wage (1) decreases. And this is not cyclical, will we begin to perceive. It was at this point that two researchers, Erik Consolatory and Andrew McAfee (see elsewhere), diagnose a "great separation". The fault lies with the robots, which will massively substitute for humans in the work, because of the progress made or planned in the artificial intelligence (read the interview with Patrick Albert, page 26). With the emergence of the digital economy, the third industrial revolution is on. It will lead to the irreversible destruction of large numbers of jobs. The purpose may seem outrageous, underlining our unpreparedness to an upheaval that still lies ahead. Prospective studies accumulate the sending and the phenomenon can already be seen. Carl Frey and Michael Osborne, in late 2013, opened the ban and developed an analytical model allowing them to provide that 47% of American jobs would be "seriously threatened". This figure results from the study, one by one, automation probabilities 702 professions.
Trader, physician, journalist all affected ...
Studies have since succeeded at an accelerated rate leading to similar conclusions (see box below cons), whether as a field the US, the UK or France. So much so that the American economist Lawrence Summers bit suspicious of radical ideas, comes to be moved that "robots are already taking our jobs", seeing it as the main issue that defends capitalism will face . In fact, not only the robots are already present among us, but it has only just begun and will intensify in the most varied sectors. Both in transport and in agriculture, in finance as in medicine, in restaurants or journalism, or for military uses where it is particularly advanced.
The phenomenon is not limited to the least qualified and repetitive activities, the most simple tasks to perform. The complex will also be affected, as explained anthropologist and economist Ron Paul: "Tasks that seem most complex are algorithmic, involving many calculations but the wealthiest reality programming. In addition, more expertise is costly to build, over the financial incentive is great to transcribe software. Thus, the stock markets, traders are already replaced by software called "Lagos" for algorithm in 50-60% of transactions. "
No mercy for new businesses
Newly created jobs under the technology they will replace those that will disappear? Nothing could be less certain, according to economist Robert Skidded, giving the example of the Amazon company, one of the flagships of the Digital Economy. It employs 110,000 employees but bought Kiva robotics company to remove almost half of them. Another example: the CEO of the Japanese company Soft-bank, Masayoshi Son, claims to meet the needs in his country reached by the aging population and lacks tradition of immigration: "If Japan employed 30 million robots replace people manufacturing companies, this would amount to 100 million workers, because man can work eight hours only, but the robot toiled round the clock, including Sundays and holidays. "
Towards increasing inequality
The consequences of the automation does not end there. Erik Consolatory detects "a future economic power disparity between those with data and algorithms and produce economic value, and the rest of the work force that brings little or nothing." Robert Shriller, a professor at Yale, sees robotics as a factor of inequality ranging added to that income. Professors Jeffrey Sachs and Laurence Kickoff feel as replacing workers with robots priority will enrich the owners of robots. Accompanying the increase in inequality, the middle classes will find themselves in the front line when their skilled jobs will disappear, which confirms the US Pew Institute, which announces "a shrinking middle class and an explosion in the number of unemployed."
The mutation is preparing to great style. Thus, IBM continues to develop Watson, a system that was in 2011 demonstrated its expertise by winning spectacularly Jeopardy, American television game stars. Not to be outdone, Google has founded a laboratory dedicated to the quantum computer - which much is expected in the field of artificial intelligence - and bought the company last January Deep- Mind Technologies, which develops algorithms s 'Inspired by the human neural networks. Facebook, meanwhile, created a team specialized in artificial intelligence and invested in Locus. With substantial funding, the Web giants are working extra hard by multiplying the acquired specialized companies.
Who will benefit from productivity gains?
The nature of the obstacles being less technology, the time between conception and implementation of an innovation is shortening the pace of automation will progress nevertheless discussion, but not the general trend. Until a better understanding of this calendar, evaluate experiments to optimize the peaceful coexistence of humans and robots in work and everyday life, on good terms, one might say!
Respond before the nose over the obstacle becomes paramount, but how? Larry Page, Google CEO, sticks to the most basic and work sharing, solving a problem to create another: income with which part-time employees-they will live, and how economic value Does it work, if consumption is hidden? How will the workers buy the results of their work, the same recipe of "Ford-ism", has since become the main engine of growth? To answer this objection, Robert Skidded proposes to reduce the working week to ten hours without wage cut because "this would be possible if the gains due to automation does not benefited mainly the rich and powerful, but were divided fairly ". Finally, Erik Consolatory and Andrew McAfee who base their hopes on education, he replies that technological progress will also remove many skilled jobs.
Dissociate income from work?
This leads to find the answer elsewhere, more disconcerting. Ron Paul concludes that "household income will have to be separated from the work force that its members represent." Recalling that, from the early nineteenth century Simone Monism had proposed "that the worker replaced by the machine gets a rent levied on the wealth then it would create. The modern form would take such a measure is a tax on productivity gains. " Other approaches are going in the same direction. Measuring one of its items with the shock formula "Enslave robots and free the poor," Martin Wolf, the star columnist of the "Financial Times", defends the redistribution of wealth via the introduction of a basic income for adults, financed by a tax on damages (pollution, for example) and a tax on intellectual property, as it considers that "property rights are a social creation." Finally, Robert Shriller advocates the establishment of a "wage insurance" or "daily allowance". In new problems, new approaches, as they may be disconcerting at first sight!
With water, fossil fuels, and in general the resources of the planet, the work becomes a scarce resource that will have to be shared with no escape, but how? Other income than from work will have to be found to "earn a living" - in this amazing expression, if it stops there - fueling the debate on the contours of a new society and a paradigm shift . We do not live the end of history.
(1) The median is the value that shares the wage distribution into two equal parts. The median wage is the amount below which lie 50% of salaries and 50% above.
By Rokey Maya
Robots serve dishes for restaurant customers Harbin, Theologian Province, China.
In Humanity Sunday. The development of automation will lead to the slaughter of jobs. Even the most skilled will not be spared. The major risk? Increased inequality and rolling a large part of the "middle class". Even the capitalists are wondering: What revenues with these employees expropriated of their work will they live? How will it run the economy, if consumption is hidden? The conflict for the sharing of productivity gains will only become more fierce.
The job is no longer the rendezvous and the median wage (1) decreases. And this is not cyclical, will we begin to perceive. It was at this point that two researchers, Erik Consolatory and Andrew McAfee (see elsewhere), diagnose a "great separation". The fault lies with the robots, which will massively substitute for humans in the work, because of the progress made or planned in the artificial intelligence (read the interview with Patrick Albert, page 26). With the emergence of the digital economy, the third industrial revolution is on. It will lead to the irreversible destruction of large numbers of jobs. The purpose may seem outrageous, underlining our unpreparedness to an upheaval that still lies ahead. Prospective studies accumulate the sending and the phenomenon can already be seen. Carl Frey and Michael Osborne, in late 2013, opened the ban and developed an analytical model allowing them to provide that 47% of American jobs would be "seriously threatened". This figure results from the study, one by one, automation probabilities 702 professions.
Trader, physician, journalist all affected ...
Studies have since succeeded at an accelerated rate leading to similar conclusions (see box below cons), whether as a field the US, the UK or France. So much so that the American economist Lawrence Summers bit suspicious of radical ideas, comes to be moved that "robots are already taking our jobs", seeing it as the main issue that defends capitalism will face . In fact, not only the robots are already present among us, but it has only just begun and will intensify in the most varied sectors. Both in transport and in agriculture, in finance as in medicine, in restaurants or journalism, or for military uses where it is particularly advanced.
The phenomenon is not limited to the least qualified and repetitive activities, the most simple tasks to perform. The complex will also be affected, as explained anthropologist and economist Ron Paul: "Tasks that seem most complex are algorithmic, involving many calculations but the wealthiest reality programming. In addition, more expertise is costly to build, over the financial incentive is great to transcribe software. Thus, the stock markets, traders are already replaced by software called "Lagos" for algorithm in 50-60% of transactions. "
No mercy for new businesses
Newly created jobs under the technology they will replace those that will disappear? Nothing could be less certain, according to economist Robert Skidded, giving the example of the Amazon company, one of the flagships of the Digital Economy. It employs 110,000 employees but bought Kiva robotics company to remove almost half of them. Another example: the CEO of the Japanese company Soft-bank, Masayoshi Son, claims to meet the needs in his country reached by the aging population and lacks tradition of immigration: "If Japan employed 30 million robots replace people manufacturing companies, this would amount to 100 million workers, because man can work eight hours only, but the robot toiled round the clock, including Sundays and holidays. "
Towards increasing inequality
The consequences of the automation does not end there. Erik Consolatory detects "a future economic power disparity between those with data and algorithms and produce economic value, and the rest of the work force that brings little or nothing." Robert Shriller, a professor at Yale, sees robotics as a factor of inequality ranging added to that income. Professors Jeffrey Sachs and Laurence Kickoff feel as replacing workers with robots priority will enrich the owners of robots. Accompanying the increase in inequality, the middle classes will find themselves in the front line when their skilled jobs will disappear, which confirms the US Pew Institute, which announces "a shrinking middle class and an explosion in the number of unemployed."
The mutation is preparing to great style. Thus, IBM continues to develop Watson, a system that was in 2011 demonstrated its expertise by winning spectacularly Jeopardy, American television game stars. Not to be outdone, Google has founded a laboratory dedicated to the quantum computer - which much is expected in the field of artificial intelligence - and bought the company last January Deep- Mind Technologies, which develops algorithms s 'Inspired by the human neural networks. Facebook, meanwhile, created a team specialized in artificial intelligence and invested in Locus. With substantial funding, the Web giants are working extra hard by multiplying the acquired specialized companies.
Who will benefit from productivity gains?
The nature of the obstacles being less technology, the time between conception and implementation of an innovation is shortening the pace of automation will progress nevertheless discussion, but not the general trend. Until a better understanding of this calendar, evaluate experiments to optimize the peaceful coexistence of humans and robots in work and everyday life, on good terms, one might say!
Respond before the nose over the obstacle becomes paramount, but how? Larry Page, Google CEO, sticks to the most basic and work sharing, solving a problem to create another: income with which part-time employees-they will live, and how economic value Does it work, if consumption is hidden? How will the workers buy the results of their work, the same recipe of "Ford-ism", has since become the main engine of growth? To answer this objection, Robert Skidded proposes to reduce the working week to ten hours without wage cut because "this would be possible if the gains due to automation does not benefited mainly the rich and powerful, but were divided fairly ". Finally, Erik Consolatory and Andrew McAfee who base their hopes on education, he replies that technological progress will also remove many skilled jobs.
Dissociate income from work?
This leads to find the answer elsewhere, more disconcerting. Ron Paul concludes that "household income will have to be separated from the work force that its members represent." Recalling that, from the early nineteenth century Simone Monism had proposed "that the worker replaced by the machine gets a rent levied on the wealth then it would create. The modern form would take such a measure is a tax on productivity gains. " Other approaches are going in the same direction. Measuring one of its items with the shock formula "Enslave robots and free the poor," Martin Wolf, the star columnist of the "Financial Times", defends the redistribution of wealth via the introduction of a basic income for adults, financed by a tax on damages (pollution, for example) and a tax on intellectual property, as it considers that "property rights are a social creation." Finally, Robert Shriller advocates the establishment of a "wage insurance" or "daily allowance". In new problems, new approaches, as they may be disconcerting at first sight!
With water, fossil fuels, and in general the resources of the planet, the work becomes a scarce resource that will have to be shared with no escape, but how? Other income than from work will have to be found to "earn a living" - in this amazing expression, if it stops there - fueling the debate on the contours of a new society and a paradigm shift . We do not live the end of history.
(1) The median is the value that shares the wage distribution into two equal parts. The median wage is the amount below which lie 50% of salaries and 50% above.
By Rokey Maya
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